Thai Hotels Expect a Flat Q4 2026: Notes for Samui Owners

Thailand's hotel association expects the last quarter of 2026 to be about level with 2025, with long-haul guests stronger than short-haul.

Thailand's hotels do not expect a strong rise this high season. On 10 October 2026, Khaosod English reported that Thienprasith Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association (THA), expects tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be roughly level with the same period of 2025. Long-haul markets are doing better than short-haul ones, and arrivals from ASEAN countries are down by about 20%.

Upper-end hotels do better

According to the report, bookings at four- and five-star hotels are encouraging, while lower-rated hotels have not recovered. The THA president also said the recent floods have hurt confidence and domestic travel, because many households are spending on repairs to homes and vehicles. In his view, a government stimulus campaign would probably come too late to help this high season. He also asked for better coordination between airports, immigration and baggage handling.

Opposition to new travel charges

The association has written to the Revenue Department to oppose the draft 1,000 baht departure tax, which is under public consultation. Together with the planned 450 baht tourist fee and the airport passenger charge, the THA puts the cost at 2,570 to 3,000 baht per foreign visitor, according to Khaosod English. It warns that this would make Thailand less competitive with destinations such as Vietnam and Hong Kong. Both charges are proposals and are not collected today.

The flight picture

Flight data point the same way. The Nation reported on 13 October that Kasikorn Research Center expects scheduled international flights to Thailand to rise 5.8% in the fourth quarter. It forecasts growth of 28.6% for flights from Europe and 21.6% from China, with falls for India, Russia and South Korea. The research centre also notes that international flights remain concentrated in Bangkok and Phuket.

What it means for villa owners

The survey and the flight figures are national. Neither source gives numbers for Koh Samui, and they cover hotels, not private villas. Still, the direction is useful for planning the high season:

Long-haul guests, especially from Europe, look like the strongest group this winter. Check that your listing, photos and booking terms suit them, including longer stays.
Guests from nearby Asian countries may be fewer, so do not count on last-minute short trips to fill empty weeks.
The upper end of the market is holding better. Good maintenance, fast replies and honest photos matter more when demand is uneven.
Compare your bookings for November to February with last year now, and adjust prices early rather than late.

This is news, not business advice, and results vary from one villa to another. To see what your property could earn in the current market, you can request a rental estimate.